نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مدیریت ورزشی دانشکدۀ علوم ورزشی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. اصفهان. ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی مدیریت‌ راهبردی در ‌ورزش، گروه تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مبارکه

چکیده

مطالعه حاضر با هدف کشف آینده‌های پیش‌روی آموزش ورزش سلامت محور  ایران و تدوین سناریوهای آن برای 20 سال آینده و ارائه استراتژی انجام شده است. در پژوهش حاضر روش آینده‌نگاری با رویکرد سناریو‌نویسی بر اساس روش منطق شهودی به کار گرفته‌ شد.‌ برای طراحی سناریوها از روش تحلیل روند ها و عدم‌قطعیت‌ها استفاده گردید. ابتدا، محدودۀ پروژه مشخص، سپس عوامل اصلی توسعه و نقاط کور با بازخورد 360 درجه شناسایی گردید. پس از آن، دو عدم قطعیت کلیدی به عنوان پایه طراحی سناریوها تدوین شد. در گام بعد تعریف تفصیلی و کامل چهار سناریو ممکن صورت پذیرفت. در مرحلۀ پنجم یک استراتژی کلی بر اساس سناریوها ارائه گردید و گام آخر شامل پایش و کنترل استراتژی‌ها انجام شد. مشارکت‌کنندگان پژوهش حاضر شامل 28 نفر از ذینفعان داخلی و خارجی آموزش ورزش سلامت محور ایران بودند که بر اساس نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. گردآوری داده ها با مصاحبه و پرسش‌نامه‌ باز صورت گرفت بر اساس یافته ها، تحلیل 26 عامل اصلی بدست آمده در نهایت منجر به تولید دو عدم-قطعیت کلیدی " ایجاد حس تقاضا به ورزش مبتنی بر  فن آوری های نوین " و " بهینه سازی جسمی با نهادینه سازی ورزش " شد که اساس چهار سناریو اصلی آموزش ورزش سلامت محور  ایران گردیدند. 
واژگان کلیدی: آینده‌نگاری؛ سناریو‌نگاری؛ عدم‌قطعیت؛ راهبردی؛ ورزش‌سلامت محور

 
 
 

عنوان مقاله [English]

Strategic Scenarios of Health-Based Sport in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Rasool Nazari 1
  • Javad Shahvali 2

1 Associate Professor of Sport Management, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

2 PhD student in Strategic Management, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Sport in the community is the institutional form of the educational process for a healthy and active life. The purpose of this study was to explore the future of health-oriented sport education in Iran and to formulate its scenarios for the next 20 years and present a strategy. In this study, the foresight approach was used with the scriptwriting approach based on the intuitive logic method. First, the specific project boundary, then the main development factors and blind spots were identified with 360 degree feedback. Subsequently, two key uncertainties were formulated as the basis of scenario design. In the next step, a detailed definition of the four possible scenarios was provided. The fifth step was a generic strategy based on the scenarios and the last step involved monitoring and controlling the strategies. The participants of this study included 28 internal and external stakeholders of Iranian health-based sport training that were selected based on purposeful sampling. Data were gathered through interviews and open-ended questionnaires. Based on the findings, the analysis of 26 key factors ultimately led to the production of two key uncertainties: "Creating demand for new technology based sports" and "optimal". Physical Fitness with Institutionalization of Sport ", which became the basis of four main scenarios of health - based sport education in Iran. In general, it should be acknowledged that in order to develop Iran-based sport training, separate policies in different parts of health-based sport training should be formulated on the basis of systematically sustained physical activity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Forecasting
  • Scenario
  • Uncertainty
  • Strategic
  • Health-Based Sports
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