تدوین سناریوهای آینده مطلوب ورزش همگانی ایران

شهریاری, ناصر; تابش, سعید; ذوالفقارزاده, محمد مهدی

doi:10.22059/jsm.2021.312797.2610

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ گروه مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران

² گروه مدیریت ورزشی، دانشکده علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

³ گروه مدیریت، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jsm.2021.312797.2610

چکیده

مقدمه: پدیده اجتماعی ورزش همگانی، تحت تأثیر عوامل مختلف و عدم قطعیت‌های مداوم قرار دارد؛ آینده‌نگاری، نقشه راه مطمئن و بهینه را فراهم خواهد کرد؛ هدف پژوهش تدوین سناریوهای آینده مطلوب ورزش همگانی ایران می‌باشد.
روش پژوهش: پژوهش حاضر با روش‌شناسی آمیخته، به‌دنبال اکتشاف است. مشارکت‌کنندگان، به‌صورت هدفمند انتخاب و به‌ترتیب مراحل پژوهش، شامل 20، 10، 8 ،8 نفر بوده‌اند. از مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختاریافته، پرسشنامه و ماتریس برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات استفاده شده‌است. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل، ابتدا با روش تحلیل‌محتوای پنهان عوامل موثر استخراج و با روش دلفی مورد تائید خبرگان قرار گرفت و با مشارکت شورای راهبردی و تحلیل اثرات متقابل عوامل راهبردی شناسایی و نهایتا با روش تحلیل متوازن تاثیر متقابل، سناریوهای پژوهش استخراج گردید.
یافته ها: نتایج بیانگر تدوین 3 سناریو برای تحقق آینده مطلوب می‌باشد. سناریو اول شامل، مؤلفه‌های تخصیص منابع مالی، ورود همه‌جانبه اقشار، مدیریت واحد و یکپارچه و پرداختن رسانه‌ها، سناریو دوم شامل، مؤلفه‌های تخصیص منابع مالی، جایگاه‌ اجتماعی خانواده، تخصص‌گرایی و برجسته‌سازی و الگوسازی، سناریو سوم شامل مؤلفه‌های تخصیص منابع مالی، ورود همه‌جانبه اقشار، تخصص‌گرایی و پرداختن رسانه‌ها می‌باشد.
نتیجه گیری: سناریوها، این امکان را برای سیاست‌گذاران و مدیران عالی ورزش ایران فراهم می‌نماید تا با به‌کارگیری و ایجاد ارتباط بین راهبردهای اولویت‌دار برای مؤلفه‌های تشکیل‌دهنده سناریو، با نهادینه‌کردن ورزش همگانی، کارکردهای غنی آن را در جامعه جاری گردانند و در نهایت منجر به ساخت آینده مطلوب و توفیق ملی گردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Formulating Future Desirable Scenarios for Public Sport in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

Naser Shahryari ¹
Saeid Tabesh ²
Mohammad Mahdi Zolfagharzadeh ³

¹ Department of Sport management, Isfahan (khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

² Department of Sport Management, Faculty of Sport Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

³ . Department of Management, University of Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction: The social phenomenon of public sports is influenced by various factors and constant uncertainties, but foresight will provide a reliable and optimal road map for it. The purpose of this research was to formulate the desired future scenarios for public sports in Iran.
Methods: The current study, with its exploratory purpose, followed a mixed-methods approach. The participants were purposefully selected and included 20, 10, 8, and 8 people according to the stages of the research. A semi-structured interview, questionnaire, and matrix were used to collect data. For data analysis, first, the effective factors were extracted by the hidden content analysis method and confirmed by experts using the Delphi method, and then, the strategic factors were identified with the participation of the strategic council and the mutual effects analysis. Finally, the research scenarios were extracted through the balanced mutual influence analysis method.
Results: The results indicate the formulation of three scenarios for realizing the desired future. The first scenario includes the components of financial resource allocation, comprehensive participation of the stratum of society, unified and integrated management, and the media's attention to Iran's public sports. The second scenario includes the components of financial resource allocation; the social status of the family; and specialization, highlighting, and modeling of athletes. The third or the final scenario includes the components of financial resource allocation, comprehensive participation of the stratum of society, specialization, and the media's attention to Iran's public sports.
Conclusion: Scenarios provide the possibility for the policymakers and high managers of Iran’s sports to implement and establish a relationship between the priority strategies for the constituent components of the scenario, by institutionalizing public sports, to implement its rich functions in the society and ultimately, lead to the construction of the desirable future and national success.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Future
Foresight
Mutual Effects Analysis
Scenario Wizard
Public Sports Word

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