نشریه مدیریت ورزشی

شناسایی عوامل پیش‌بینی‌کنندۀ موفقیت کشورها در جام‌جهانی فوتبال

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

فهیمه میرزایی 1
مجید جلالی فراهانی 2
قدرت الله باقری 1
میثم شهبازی 1

1 پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشکده تربیت بدنی دانشگاه تهران

https://doi.org/10.22059/jsm.2019.222975.1749
چکیده
جام جهانی فوتبال به‌دلیل جذابیت‌های ویژۀ آن به عرصه‌ای برای نشان دادن برتری‌های کشورها بر رقبای آنها تبدیل شده است. به همین دلیل شناسایی عوامل موفقیت کشورها در این مسابقات برای سیاستگذاران ورزشی حائز اهمیت است. با عنایت به ماهیت اکتشافی موضوع از روش پژوهش کیفی به‌منظور تعیین مهم‌ترین عوامل پیش‌بین بر موفقیت کشورها استفاده شد. نخست از طریق مطالعات اولیه، فهرست مقدماتی شاخص‌های مؤثر شناسایی شد. سپس مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با 24 = n نفر از نخبگان آگاه از موضوع پژوهش انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد 232 شاخص از جمله سرانۀ تولید ناخالص داخلی، جمعیت، ساختار سنی، مدت زمان تأسیس فدراسیون فوتبال در کشورها، مدت زمان پیوستن فدراسیون فوتبال کشورها به فیفا، میزبانی جام‌جهانی و هزینۀ نظامی می‌توانند پیش‌بینی‌کنندۀ موفقیت کشورها در جام جهانی فوتبال باشند. تحلیل انجام‌گرفته شاخص‌ها را در پنج عامل سیاسی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی، فناوری و ورزشی (PEST+S) طبقه‌بندی کرد. همچنین با استفاده از مدل پیشنهادی دی‌بوسچر و همکاران (2006) عوامل مذکور در سه سطح خرد، متوسط و کلان دسته‌بندی شد. در نهایت برای مدیران این امکان فراهم می‌شود تا با توجه به امکانات و منابع بالقوۀ کشور و مقایسه با کشورهای دیگر سیاست‌ها و برنامه‌های مناسب اتخاذ کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

جام جهانی
فوتبال
سطوح خرد
متوسط و کلان
موفقیت

عنوان مقاله English

Identifying Predictive Factors of Success of the Countries in Football World Cup

نویسندگان English

fahimeh mirzaei 1
majid jalali 2
ghodratollah bagheri 1
meisam shahbazi 1
1 Farabi Campus, University of Tehran
2 University of Tehran
چکیده English

Because of special attractions of FIFA World Cup it has become the area to show advantages of countries over their competitors. For this reason identifying success factors of countries in this tournament is important for sports policy makers. Regard to the exploratory nature of the subject were used qualitative methods to determine the most important factors in predicting success of countries. First preliminary list of indicators were identified through initial studies. Then semi-structured interviews was conducted with (n = 24) of the elites that aware of these issues. Results showed that, 232 indexes Including Per capita GDP, population, Age structure, The duration of the establishment of the Football Federation in the countries, The duration of the federation join to FIFA, World Cup hosting and Military cost could predict the success of countries in FIFA World Cup. In this analysis, indexes were classified into 5 elements: political, economic, social and cultural, technology and sport (PEST+S). Also, using De Bosscher et al’s model (2006), the factors were divided into micro, meso and macro levels. Finally, it is possible for managers according to given facilities and resources of the country compared to other countries adopt appropriate policies and programs.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

FIFA
World Cup
Micro
Meso and Macro Levels
Success
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نشریه مدیریت ورزشی
دوره 10، شماره 3
پاییز 1397
صفحه 533-513

  • تاریخ دریافت 02 دی 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری 06 اردیبهشت 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش 16 بهمن 1395

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