Introduction: Values-based governance, as a dynamic process for strengthening social norms and beliefs, has gained increasing importance in various fields, including professional sports. Professional football in Iran, faced with challenges such as sanctions, government dependency, and corruption, requires futures studies to anticipate possible scenarios of value-oriented governance. The aim of this study was to identify the key factors and possible scenarios up to the 2040 horizon.
Methods: This study employed an applied mixed-methods design (qualitative–quantitative). In the qualitative phase, key factors and consequences were extracted through thematic analysis of 10 semi-structured interviews with experts. In the quantitative phase, these factors were scored using a cross-impact matrix, and their interrelationships were analyzed with MICMAC software. Subsequently, four scenarios were generated using Scenario Wizard.
Results: The key factors included economic, social, and political/religious dimensions, while the consequences included the development of values, the weakening of values, and the role of managers. Among these, economic factors, particularly profit orientation, were dominant; however, political/religious factors emerged as the main driving forces. Based on the probability of occurrence, the scenarios were: value-oriented prosperity (30%), economic crisis (25%), political transformation (20%), and cultural sustainability (15%).
Conclusion: Values-based governance in Iranian professional football up to the 2040 horizon is influenced by economic factors (profit orientation and sanctions), social factors (justice and marginal issues), and political/religious factors (influence and ethics). These factors may lead to consequences such as sustainable development or corruption-driven decline. The role of managers, as a central pivot, can alter this trajectory.