Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Ph.D. Student sports management, Ha.c., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran
2
Farhangian University, P.O. Box 14665-889 Tehran, Iran.
3
Department of Physical Education, Mal.c., Islamic Azad University, Malayer, Iran
4
Department of Physical Education, Ha.c., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran
10.22059/jsm.2026.408851.3594
Abstract
The present study aims to explain the future scenarios of the media framing of Iranian wrestling in the 2028 Olympics, focusing on the impact of political tensions between Iran and the United States. This research attempts to identify key drivers and critical uncertainties, outline possible future perspectives, and provide a basis for strategic decision-making by sports and media managers. This research was conducted with a futures research approach and a mixed nature (qualitative-quantitative). In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 elites in the fields of international relations, media, and sports management, and key drivers were extracted. In the quantitative phase, structural analysis was conducted using the Cross-Effects Matrix questionnaire and the MiqMaq software, and it was determined that the “level of geopolitical tensions” and “international media strategy” are the most key and uncertain drivers. Based on these two drivers, four distinct scenarios for the future were developed: 1) Window of Opportunity (desirable): Reduced political tension and professional media coverage provide space for sports diplomacy. 2) Symbolic Battlefield (critical): Intense political tension turns the Olympics into an arena of media confrontation and narrative warfare. 3) Silent Struggle: Despite political tension, the media tries to act professionally, but the atmosphere is fragile and prone to crisis. 4) Lost Echo: Despite improving political relations, some hardline media outlets continue to beat the drum of confrontation.
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